GREENWOOD VILLAGE, Colo. – According to a report released Feb. 20 by CoBank, more U.S. farmers are shifting to corn as prices stay strong, with analysts expecting the crop to pull acres from soybeans, spring wheat, cotton and grain sorghum.

“U.S. farmers are set to plant more corn in 2025 as high prices make it the most attractive crop, with corn acreage expected to increase by 4.2 percent to 94.5 million acres,” said Tanner Ehmke, CoBank grains and oilseeds economist, who led the report. “Strong global demand, tight supplies, and record ethanol production are driving this shift.

“Corn remains king as prices and price competitiveness have increased over the last several months amid tight global stocks and an impressive export pace led particularly by Mexico, record ethanol production, and profitable feeding margins in the livestock and poultry sectors.”

When asked about the 4.2 percent increase, Betty Resnick, American Farm Bureau Federation economist, told Farm World, “While the projected increase in acres is significant and slightly larger than typical, it is not by any means unprecedented. Over the past 10 years, there were two years with larger increases in acres in both percentage and acre terms.

“In 2023, corn-planted acreage increased by 7.3 percent year over year, and in 2016, it increased by 6.8 percent. While looking at year-to-year changes in absolute terms, including decreases, between 2015 and 2024, it’s only slightly above the average swing of 3.6 percent.”

The Iowa Corn Growers Association told Farm World in a Feb. 25 joint statement, “(The) 94.5 million acres represents a significant increase in corn plantings, and would mark the second-highest acreage devoted to corn in the past decade.

“This expansion has the potential to substantially boost the total corn supply,” the statement said. “For perspective, if we apply last year’s record yield of 179.3 bushels per acre to CoBank’s projected 3.9-million-acre increase, we’re looking at approximately 700 million additional bushels of corn that will need to find new market demand.

“Strong global demand for both corn and ethanol, alongside healthy domestic ethanol consumption, has recently strengthened corn markets,” the statement added. “There is still a lot that can change from now until planting season, but this study reflects current market conditions, as corn demonstrates a viable path to profitability at present price levels, and appears likely to draw acreage away from less profitable alternatives such as soybeans and cotton, which face more challenging economic outlooks currently.”

Based on statistical regression analysis (method used to determine the structure of a relationship between variables) and conversations with cooperatives and merchandisers across the U.S. that market the major crops, Ehmke said CoBank predicts total U.S. planted acreage for each of those crops (e.g., soybeans, spring wheat, cotton and grain sorghum) and outlines global market dynamics that could impact final acreage allocation decisions.

“While farmers tend to stick to historical crop rotations for agronomic reasons and market diversification, corn’s price rally relative to other crops suggests a major shift in acreage is in the offing,” he said.

“We’re still several weeks away from the start of planting season, which means the acreage balance is still in flux,” he added. “Multiple factors could shift how acres are traded around the U.S., but the current price environment suggests corn will be king in 2025.”

Moreover, he said, “U.S. soybean-planted acreage is expected to fall 3.6 percent year over year to 84 million; spring wheat (excluding durum) is seen falling 5.9 percent year over year to 10 million; cotton acres are expected to fall 7.8 percent year over year to 10.3 million; and grain sorghum planted acreage is seen falling 9.5 percent year over year to 5.7 million.”

When asked what her overall takeaway was from the CoBank report and if she thought strong global demand, tight supplies, and record ethanol production were driving this shift to corn, Resnick said, “Corn does have some momentum, especially from ethanol. However, I don’t necessarily see this as a sign of strength for corn, but a sign of particularly weak markets for other crop options.

“While trade is still very important to robust corn demand, it is less dependent on exports than the other crops in the study: soybeans, spring wheat, cotton and grain sorghum,” she added. “So, it could also be seen as a safer choice with all the current uncertainty around trade.”