DES MOINES, Iowa – The fact that U.S. hog producers shouldn’t count on any significant supply growth this summer is actually good news for producers, said an agricultural economist analyzing the March 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report.

Altin Kalo, Steiner Consulting Group chief economist, added that any supply growth that may come in the fall is going to be very modest at best.

“The last thing you want is to have headwinds in terms of exports, along with a slowdown in sales to key markets like Mexico, while at the same time, you’ve got a lot of hogs on the ground you’re going to have to push through,” he said in a March 27 webinar with reporters.

“You can look at the report itself and construe it as bullish,” he added. “I think it is because we’re basically looking at supplies for the summer roughly what they were last year. In terms of slaughter, they might be even a little bit lower. If you add the normal increase you have in weights, you’re looking at a modest increase versus what the USDA had in their latest estimates in March that had production up 2 percent to 3 percent year over year.”

According to the report, as of March 1, there were 74.5 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, down slightly from March 2024, and down 1 percent from Dec. 1, 2024.

The report said U.S. breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 68.5 million head, was down slightly from last year, and down 1 percent from last quarter.

The December 2024-February 2025 pig crop, at 33.7 million head, was down slightly from last year. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.89 million head, down 1 percent from previous year, the report said. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd.

The report said, however, average pigs saved per litter was 11.65 for the December 2024-February 2025 period, compared to 11.53 last year.

Lee Schulz, Ever.ag chief economist, told reporters three Midwest states had large year-over-year growth in pigs per litter: “We’ve seen grow large growth in Illinois at 5.5 percent, Kansas at 3 percent over, Missouri at 5.3 percent growth. ”

The report said Iowa hog producers accounted for the nation’s largest inventory, at 24.3 million head, up slightly from the previous quarter, but down 4 percent from the previous year. Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 9.2 million head; and North Carolina was third, with 8.1 million head.

In Illinois, total hog and pig inventory was 5.55 million head, up 1 percent from Dec. 1, 2024, but down 1 percent from last year. 

In Indiana, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 4.35 million head, down 50,000 head from a year ago. 

In Michigan, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 1.15 million head, down 40,000 head from a year ago. 

In Ohio, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 2.6 million head, up 100,000 head from a year ago. 

Kentucky and Tennessee numbers were not included in the report.

The report said United States hog producers intend to have 2.91 million sows farrow during the March-May 2025 quarter, down slightly from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 1 percent from the same period two years earlier.

“Pork producers are very savvy,” Kalo said. “They’re not going to go out there and make the investments, given all the uncertainty that exists. They also aren’t going to do it simply because the corn price is a little bit lower, or they ended up with a few months of good profits after sustaining significant losses in 2023, and early 2024. Decision making now is very different than it was 10 to 20 years ago, when you had more smaller producers out there making independent decisions.”

The report said intended farrowings for June-August 2025, at 2.96 million sows, are down 1 percent from the same period one year earlier, and down 2 percent from the same period two years earlier.

“The decline in the breeding herd suggests producers are far from retaining any hogs,” Kalo said. “Trade remains a major factor going forward, however, and futures will continue to focus on the potential for retaliatory tariffs in Mexico, Canada and other countries, should the (Trump) administration decide to go ahead with planned tariffs.”