As expected, the USDA left U.S. corn production unchanged in the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, keeping the crop at 15.82 billion bu. The only change to corn demand this month was a 50 million bu increase to old crop exports. This was slightly larger than expected and cut old crop carryout to 1.365 bbu. This carried through and reduced new crop ending stocks an equal amount, taking it to 1.75 bbu. This equates to a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.3 percent and an average cash value of $4.20 per bushel.

No changes were made to either old or new crop U.S. soybean balance sheets this month. This held old crop ending stocks at 350 mbu. New crop production remains at 4.34 bbu and carryout at 295 mbu. The new crop stocks to use is 6.7 percent, and still points to an average cash value of $10.25 per bushel.

On wheat, the final old crop ending stocks number held at 841 mbu. New crop production also held at 1.921 bbu. Exports were bumped up 25 mbu this month, cutting ending stocks to 898 mbu, while trade had been expecting a slight increase. This is a 45.3 percent stocks to use, and equates to a cash value of $5.40 per bushel, a 10 cent increase from May.

Global balance sheets changes were mixed. This year’s world corn ending stocks are forecast at 285 million metric tons, 2.2 mmt less than in May and 2.7 mmt less than trade was expecting. The world soybean carryout is now estimated at 124.2 mmt for this year, 1 mmt more than last month, and 500,000 mt more than trade expected. This year’s world wheat ending stocks were trimmed to 263.98 mmt, 1 mmt less than expected.

New crop balance sheets also favored the grains. World corn stocks at the end of the 2025/26 marketing year are forecast at 275.24 mmt, nearly 10 mmt less than this year, and 3.6 mmt less than trade was expecting. The world wheat supply is forecast to tighten 1.2 mmt next year, dipping to 262.76 mmt. This was 2.4 mmt under the average trade guess. The global soybean supply is expected to increase 1.1 mmt year to year, taking it to 125.3 mmt, 1 mmt more than expected.

Only minimal changes were made to U.S. beef production this month. For 2025 production was cut 70 million pounds to total 26.36 billion pounds. Production for 2026 was raised to 25.28 billion pounds, an increase of 140 million pounds. This year’s beef exports are now forecast at 2.7 billion pounds, up 450 million from last month, and next year’s at 2.47 billion pounds, a 250-million-pound reduction. Average steer values are now $221.51 per hundredweight for this year and $228.50 per cwt for 2026.

Beef imports are forecast at 5.2 billion pounds for 2025 and 5.03 billion pounds for 2026. These are mostly select grade cattle for ground beef to meet growing U.S. demand for that product.

No changes were made to pork production this month. This held 2025 output at 28 billion pounds, and 2026 production at 28.37 billion pounds. The USDA cut 2025 pork exports by 110 million pounds to 6.95 billion, and lowered 2026 exports by 140 million pounds, putting them at an even 7 billion pounds. Average hog values are $67.40 per cwt for this year and $64.00 a cwt for 2026.

Prior to this data being released, the Brazilian firm CONAB put out its balance sheets for that country’s crops. CONAB puts Brazil’s soybean crop at 169.6 mmt, up from last month’s 168.3 mmt. Brazil’s soybean export forecast was raised 240,000 mt to a total of 106.24 mmt. Soybean carryout was projected at 4.83 mmt. CONAB put the Brazil corn crop at 128.25 mmt, up from May’s 126.9 mmt. Corn exports were held at 34 mmt as the country’s domestic corn demand increases. Corn carryout was cut to just 1.85 mmt.

A big story for the U.S. renewable fuel industry was the release of the proposed renewable energy volume obligations for blending. The U.S. EPA is proposing a total RVO of 24.02 billion gallons for 2026. This includes 15 billion gallons of ethanol and 9 billion gallons of advanced biofuels, including 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel. The previous proposal was for 5.2 billion gallons, but in recent weeks there have been concerns that the actual volume of biodiesel blending would fall short of that level. Biodiesel blending for 2025 is projected at 3.35 billion gallons.

An even greater benefit for the U.S. soy complex was reports that incentives for biofuel manufacturing made with raw stock from outside the U.S. would be less than on domestic stocks. This is a great benefit for soy oil, especially with tariffs placed on competing products such as used cooking oil from China.

The blow up between Israel and Iran caused crude oil to spike higher immediately following the initial attacks, but since then, crude oil has softened. The primary reason for this is there has not been a disruption to oil supply from the region. All eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, the main outlet for the region. If anything threatens passage through the strait, market reaction will be much different. OPEC is also monitoring the situation and has stated they will adjU.S.t production accordingly.

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