The volume of U.S. corn and soybeans still stored on-farm is becoming more of a market topic. U.S. farmers held 2.56 billion bu of corn in on-farm storage on June 1st, 16 percent less than a year ago. On-farm stored soybeans totaled 412 million bu, a 12 percent decline from 2024. The farmers still holding this inventory have no interest in marketing it in today’s market environment. Buyers are now forced to either pay a premium to entice movement, or pay elevated prices for commercial corn. This is also why we are seeing more buyers offer free storage or deferred pay programs in an effort to encourage movement.

Trade is showing more interested in U.S. corn acreage, mainly the predicted number of harvested acres. The USDA projected U.S. corn plantings of 95.2 million and harvested acres of 86.8 million. There is increasing debate on this number of harvested acres.

Trade is split on whether they believe the number of harvested corn acres is too high or too low. Heavier abandonment is expected in the Eastern Corn Belt where heavy rains last spring created poor stands. We are now hearing more concern about crops in the Northern Plains where flooding is creating crop loss. In the Southern Plains the crop is doing much better, and little loss is expected at this time.

The potential fallout from a 50 percent tariff on Brazil beef imports is becoming more of a market factor. Research shows the United States imported 230,000 metric tons of Brazilian beef in 2024. This volume was 8 percent of Brazil’s total exports, but a large 22 percent of U.S. imports. Of this, between 65 percent and 70 percent is used for ground beef.

The concern with this loss of beef supply is that for the past several months inflation in the U.S. has started to creep higher, and inflation tends to elevate consumer demand for ground beef. This may put additional strain on a retail beef market that was already starting to see push back from high costs. It will also further strain U.S. consumer budgets.

The wheat complex has been pressured by larger estimates on the Russian crop, even with expected drought losses. The SovEcon group is estimating a Russian wheat crop of 83.6 million metric tons, a 600,000 mt increase from their prior estimate. The current USDA estimate on the Russian crop is 83.5 mmt. SovEcon is projecting total Russian grain production of 130.5 mmt, up 1 mmt from their prior outlook. A big question with these estimates is how many Ukraine-controlled acres are being included in crop estimates.

China has spent the past several months building trade relations with global commodity sources, cutting into U.S. trade. The latest has been the purchase of canola from Australia. China suspended Australian canola trade in 2020 citing fungus concerns and differences on COVID policies. China has been a buyer of Canadian canola since but is now in a trade dispute with that supplier over anti-dumping allegations. There were hopes China would book more U.S. soybeans, but the buying of canola dims this possibility. China has booked five vessels of Australian canola, and if these clear customs, volume will increase.

The National Oilseed Processors Association soybean crush report for June came in better than the average trade guess at 185.7 million bu. This was a record for the month, and although the total was down 3.7 percent from May, it was up 5.8 percent from June 2024. NOPA members held soy oil reserves at the end of June totaling 1.37 billion pounds, a slight 0.5 percent decline from May, but a large 15.8 percent decline from a year ago. Trade had been expecting a build in soy oil reserves.

China’s customs officials have released the country’s June soybean import data. China’s June imports were down 11.9 percent from May’s all-time-record high at 12.26 million metric tons, but this was the highest June import total on record. June’s soybean imports were up 10.35 percent from June 2024. Delays to the start of the Brazilian soybean harvest slowed exports as well, and now a larger volume of soybeans is arriving at a later than normal date. Of China’s June imports, 9.73 mmt were sourced from Brazil while jU.S.t 724,000 mt originated from the U.S.

China’s June meat imports were also up on the year. For the month, China imported 533,000 mt of meat, a 3.9 percent increase from May. Year-to-date meat imports are down 2.7 percent from last year’s pace though at 3.2 mmt. A shift in China’s diet, slowing consumer demand, and a rebound in domestic livestock production are behind the slower import pace.

While drought area in the United States may be shrinking for corn and soybeans from earlier this year, where the drought is centered is being monitored. The most noted drought areas are in northern Illinois eastward into Indiana and Western Michigan. Drought is also elevated along the Kansas/Nebraska line. Drought conditions are noted in the Pacific Northwest into the Canadian Prairies as well. These are all prime U.S. production areas, and even minimal losses to yields will impact balance sheets.

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