More questions are starting to arise on U.S. corn balance sheets. The United States has seen elevated corn demand this marketing year, with export sales consistently running above weekly estimates. Cumulative corn sales are now at USDA projections with eight weeks left in the year. Delays to the safrinha harvest in Brazil have kept importers focused on U.S. offers. Not only are we again seeing large flash sales of corn, but smaller feed grain sales as well. This consumption makes it difficult for the USDA to not adjust demand higher in balance sheet updates.

One global corn importer trade is keeping a close eye on is China. China released its 2025/26 import forecast, putting it at 8 million metric tons from all sources. This is a considerable decline from the 23 mmt of corn China imported in the 2023/24 marketing year. An elevated use of feed wheat, more efficient feeding and manufacturing, and record domestic production have combined to cut the country’s import needs. China’s goal is to completely remove itself from the global corn market as an importer.

The Brazilian crusher ABIOVE released its updated soybean balance sheets with limited changes. ABIOVE held its production figure steady this month at 169.7 million mt. The firm bumped crush up to 57.8 mmt from its prior 57.5 mmt. ABIOVE also raised its soybean export forecast to 109 mmt, up 800,000 mt. Meal exports were left at 23.6 mmt this month. ABIOVE pointed out how biofuel demand is impacting the Brazil soy industry the same as it has in the United States, mainly elevated demand for soy oil.

Brazil is producing a record-sized corn crop this year, but the immediate impact of this on the global market may be muted for now. Corn harvest is well behind the normal pace in Brazil and now logistics are further straining corn flow. Brazilian terminals are still loading out soybeans, limiting port space for corn. Chinese ports are still unloading soybeans, which limits space for corn in that country as well.

Brazil is also seeing less demand for its corn in the global market than expected from cheaper U.S. offers. Global corn demand on a whole is soft right now, causing further back up in Brazil.

Ukraine officials released the country’s 2025/26 balance sheets, putting total grain and oilseed production for the country at 83.1 mmt. This is well above the 74.6 mmt the country produced in the 2024/25 marketing year. This includes 29 mmt of corn, 22.4 mmt of wheat, 15 mmt of sunflower seed, and 6.2 mmt of soybeans. Ukraine is also predicting total exports of 50 mmt, up 3.3 mmt from last year.

The Russian firm IKAR has adjusted its wheat production estimate for the country, lowering it from previous projections. IKAR now has the Russian wheat crop at 84 mmt, a 500,000 mt decline from its last estimate. The group also lowered Russia’s wheat export forecast, despite adding in production from Russian-controlled Ukraine territory.

The lower production is from weather losses, mainly drought. Russia’s top production region of Rostov is expecting the lowest wheat yields in 10 years this year. Parts of Russia claim wheat yields will be up to 20 percent below normal. When adding in drought in Australia and Canada, this may bring the U.S. more export demand.

Seasonally, we tend to see commodity values retreat from not until early fall. Over the past 10 years corn values have declined 23 ½ cents from July through September. Soybeans have declined an average of 54 cents over this period, and wheat has declined an average of 36 cents. The primary reason for the decline is now is the time when we start to see elevated competition in the global market, mainly from Brazilian corn and soybean exports. We also see a shift from old crop to new crop demand at this time, and this transition can weigh on futures if new crop demand is light, similar to this year.

Several livestock reports were released that verified tight U.S. cattle numbers. This started with the July cattle on feed report showing 11.1 million head of cattle were in feedlots on July 1st with a capacity of 1,000 head or more, a 2 percent decline from last year. Steers totaled 6.88 million and heifers were 4.24 million. These were up 1 percent and down 5 percent, respectively. June placements were well below trade expectations at 1.44 million head, 8 percent fewer than last year. June marketings were down 4 percent from a year ago at 1.71 million head.

The bi-annual U.S. cattle inventory report was also released. The total number of all cattle in the U.S. on July 1st totaled 94.2 million head, 1 percent fewer than the prior count. Cows and heifers totaled 38.1 million, down 1 percent. Steers came in at 13.8 million head, also down 1 percent. The total number of all cattle being fed in the U.S. was 33.1 million, 1 percent less than the prior total. One number that increased was the U.S. dairy herd, expanding by 1 percent, adding 151,000 head.

The June cold storage data was released as well. U.S. beef supplies on June 30th totaled 395.68 million pounds, 3 percent less than in May and 1 percent less than June 2024. The frozen pork supply was 422.29 million pounds, 6 percent less than at the end of May and 11 percent less than last year. Pork bellies totaled 44.15 million pounds, a large 17 percent draw from May and 28 percent less than a year ago. The overall U.S. red meat supply was down 4 percent in June and 7 percent less than in 2024.

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