Corn production data was left unchanged this month as it always is in the December WASDE report. This held the U.S. average yield estimate at 186 bushels per acre and crop size at 16.75 billion bushels. Demand was adjusted this month, though, with export demand rising 125 million bushels to a record 3.2 bbu. This lowered the projected corn carryout to 2.03 bbu, down from the 2.15 bbu estimate in November. This was also below the average trade guess for carryout. The average cash per bushel value estimate on corn was left unchanged at $4.

No changes were made to the U.S. soybean balance sheets from either side this month. This held the average U.S. yield to 53 bushels per acre and crop size to 4.25 bbu. Ending stocks remained at 290 mbu this month while trade was mostly expecting a slight increase. Some analysts had been expecting a cut to U.S. soybean exports this month. The average cash value of soybeans was steady this month at $10.50 per bushel.

No changes were made to U.S. wheat balance sheets this month either. This held total U.S. wheat production at 1.985 bbu and ending stocks at 901 mbu. As with corn and soybeans, this was also lower than the average trade estimate. The average cash value on wheat held at $5.00 a bushel this month.

A few more changes were made to global balance sheets this month. The world corn carryout is now estimated at 279.15 million metric tons, 2.2 mmt lower than the November projection. This was a result of the lower U.S. ending stocks. The world soybean carryout is now estimated at 122.37 mmt, up 370,000 mt from November, but still less than trade was expecting. World wheat ending stocks are forecast at 274.87 mmt, a 3.4 mmt increase from last month and 2 mmt more than the average trade guess. Larger production in Canada, Australia, Argentina and others added to the world wheat supply.

Changes to red meat production were mixed this month. Beef production for 2025 was raised 190 million pounds to total 25.95 billion pounds. For 2026, beef production was bumped up 340 million pounds to a 25.73 billion pounds total. Pork production for 2025 was trimmed 30 million pounds to a 27.46-billion-pound total and 2026 production was left unchanged at 27.48 billion pounds. 

Red meat demand was also mixed. Beef exports for 2025 were lowered by 450 million pounds to a total of 2.587 billion. Beef exports for 2026 were cut 400 million pounds to total 2.485 billion pounds. Pork exports for this year were lowered by 100 million pounds to a 6.97-billion-pound target but increased for 2026 by 600 million pounds to total 7.02 billion pounds.

The biggest change in U.S. red meat trade was to beef imports. The U.S. is expected to import 5.34 billion pounds of beef in 2025, 200 million pounds fewer than the November projection. Next year’s beef imports are forecast to spike 500 million pounds to a total of 5.45 billion pounds. This is a result of tariffs on Brazil beef being removed and recent trade agreements that include elevated imports of beef from Argentina.

The average U.S. steer value for 2025 is now estimated at $223.97 a hundredweight, down $2 from November on higher beef production forecasts. For 2026, the average steer value is now $235.00 per cwt, down $11. Hogs are expected to average $68.58 per cwt for this year and $66.75 per cwt for 2026, reductions of 50 cents and 25 cents respectively.

Argentina has announced it would be lowering its export taxes on several commodities, but did not give a start date. The export tax on corn will move to 8.5 percent, down 1 percent from the current rate. The revised export tax on soybeans will now be 24 percent, soy products will be 22.5 percent, and wheat will be 7.5 percent. These are all reductions from the current rates of 2 percent. While minimal these reductions will make Argentina more competitive in the global market.

Chinese officials are reporting November soybean imports of 8.1 million mt. This was up 13.4 percent from November 2024, but a sizable 14.5 percent decline from October. Year-to-date Chinese soybean imports now stand at 103.8 mmt, up 6.9 percent from last year. Analysts in China feel the country’s soybean imports could top 110 mmt. For 2026, China is holding to an import projection of 106 mmt.

The USDA has released its 2026 baseline acreage estimates for the U.S. crops. For corn the USDA is predicting 95 million acres, down from the 98.7 million that were planted a year ago. Soybean plantings are forecast at 85 million compared to 81.1 million last year. Wheat plantings are anticipated to decline by 1.3 million and total 44 million.

The White House has announced that $12 billion in farm subsidies will start to be paid out in February. These payments will come from money collected on U.S. tariffs and is being offered to help offset losses from slow U.S. exports, mainly to China following the escalated trade war over the past year. For row crops these payments will be based on a per acre plan and will favor soybeans and cotton. Details on this subsidy package are still coming in.

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