Happy 2026! As the new year begins, milk production is abundant on U.S. farms, evidenced in the USDA’s latest data. November output hit 18.79 billion pounds, up 4.5 percent from November 2024, which admittedly was impacted by avian influenza, particularly in the nation’s No. 1 milk producer, California, which was down 7.9 percent from 2023. November output in the top 24 states totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 4.7 percent. StoneX adds that fat and protein pooled in market orders were also up and puts component adjusted production at plus 6.0 percent.

October production was revised down 15 million pounds resulting in a 3.6 percent increase from a year ago, instead of the 3.7 percent originally reported. The 24-state total was revised down 11 million pounds, up 3.8 percent, instead of the 3.9 percent reported.

November cow numbers totaled 9.570 million, unchanged from the revised October count, which was lowered 5,000 head, but 211,000 head or 2.2 percent above a year ago. The 24-state count, at 9.133 million, was up 1,000 from October’s count, which was lowered 6,000 head, but up 214,000 or 2.4 percent from a year ago.

Output per cow averaged 1,963 pounds in the 50 states, up 41 pounds or 2.1 percent from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 1,979 pounds, was up 43 pounds or 2.2 percent from 2024. There were no revisions in the October data.

Speaking of cow numbers; the latest Livestock Slaughter report showed an estimated 204,100 dairy cows were slaughtered under federal inspection in November, down 38,900 from October.

The U.S. is not alone in pumping out the milk. “Milk production by major dairy product exporters is forecast 0.4 percent higher in 2026,” according to the USDA’s World Markets and Trade report issued Dec. 19, “as growth in the U.S., Australia, and Argentina offsets slight reductions in the European Union and New Zealand.”

The U.S. will account for most of that growth, according to the report, and is forecast to be up 1.2 percent in 2026 “as dairy farmers continue to increase herds to supply growth in processing capacity.”

“Growing cheese production is fueling demand for milk while strong exports have also boosted demand for dairy products. Argentina milk production is forecast 4.0 percent higher in 2026, amid good pasture conditions and low feed prices. Output is expected to rebound above previous highs reached before production was negatively impacted by drought and high input costs in 2024.

“European Union milk output is expected to decline for the second year in a row due to continued contraction in the cow herd, despite small growth in milk per cow. Although EU dairy margins improved during much of 2025, environmental policies and disease continue to weigh on the sector. EU processors are expected to continue to focus on high margin products, like cheese, as total milk production declines,” says USDA.

In other global news, lots of eyes are on China. HighGround Dairy reports “Despite solid gains in product flows into China from Oceania, overall import volumes declined as shipments from the EU weakened.” Volumes from the U.S. were slightly lower as well, says HGD. The data follows news that China will impose provisional tariffs of up to 42.7 percent on EU dairy imports, as China claims EU subsidies have hurt its domestic dairy industry.

Trade tensions between the two have been building throughout the year, says HighGround, and “These were the lowest November imports from the EU since 2014.” China’s tariffs “Should be viewed less as a volume-driven trade restriction and more as a policy signal,” says HGD. “While framed as a response to EU actions in other sectors, the move also serves as a clear directive to domestic importers that reliance on foreign dairy is being actively discouraged. This aligns with China’s broader push toward self-sufficiency, inventory control, and tighter management of import behavior during periods of weak or uncertain demand.”

My weekly chat on Dairy Radio Now came to an end on Dec. 29. Program host, Bill Baker, has decided to retire the program and we reminisced about our shared history, working together at DairyLine.

DairyLine was the syndicated radio program I started on Labor Day 1988. My goal was to inform dairy farmers across the country about what was happening in their industry politically and in the markets and why. It was an offshoot of a local farm radio program, the Sunrise Show, that I was doing in Lynden, Wash.

The undertaking was a huge stretch personally because, while I grew up in “America’s Dairyland,” I was a “city slicker” and barely knew the difference between a bull and a heifer. I give the glory to God who must have a sense of humor to call me to this career, but He brought the right people into my life to teach and guide me. That program became very popular in the late 70s and eventually led to my syndication which grew to 90 radio stations in 20 states.

The DairyLine column was born shortly thereafter and grew in popularity as well. In February 1999, DairyLine was acquired by DairyBusiness Communications. I remained its voice and writer of the column for about 14 years. Bill Baker was my assistant then and took over when I retired from the broadcast duties. The column then became “The Mielke Market Weekly.” Eventually DairyLine was sold and changed in scope, prompting Bill Baker to start Dairy Radio Now in 2017.

We talked about the changes that transpired in the dairy industry the past 50 years. There were many but to me, the two biggest were computer feeding and the resulting electronics that entered the milking parlor and farm office, followed by multiple component pricing.

Many of the same issues remain today. The biggest, perhaps, is one we’re in right now. Over production of milk, whereby a 2 percent “surplus” impacts the price on the other 98 percent. There’s a strange phenomenon in this industry that, when milk prices go down, milk production goes up. When milk prices are up, milk production goes up.

The go-to response of producers has been to add on cows. Efforts to control that have had minimal success. The Whole Herd Buyout program did that, however, was it was never repeated. Quota supply management programs, similar to Canada’s, were often talked about but never materialized. The “free market” has been maintained.

Multiple component pricing incentivized producers to breed for and feed for what the changing market was demanding, be it butterfat or protein for example. Farmers responded, especially on butterfat as current CME prices indicate.

Dairy’s future is bright because dairy products have the best nutrition package for the least cost to consumers and, frankly, to the environment. My biggest concern is, not rewarding producers enough to keep them in business.

The end of my radio participation is bittersweet at age 74, but I haven’t found a rocking chair that fits me yet so I will continue writing. My respect and admiration for dairy farmers and the dairy industry have never been greater. It is a tough, hard, life but one that is very fulfilling or they wouldn’t keep doing it. My prayer is for a blessed and prosperous 2026 for us all.