DES MOINES. Iowa – According to one agricultural economist, the Dec. 1, 2025, USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report was full of surprises, compared to fourth-quarter pre-report estimates.

Sponsored by the National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff in Des Moines, the report said the U.S. breeding inventory came in at 5.95 million head, down 1 percent from a year ago.

“This is the smallest U.S. Dec. 1 breeding herd since 2014,” said Lee Schulz, Ever.Ag’s Livestock Risk Management Team chief economist, during a Dec. 23, 2025, webinar. “Farrowing intentions are also above year-ago levels at 2.89 million sows for the December 2025 through February 2026 quarter. The outlook is favorable, so the incentive is there to farrow more sows, but there is a limit, given the size of the breeding herd.”

Although the breeding inventory lined up with pre-report expectations, he said some analysts thought the breeding herd could have seen some modest expansion – and been larger than a year ago.

“Pre-report estimates are important because they generally reflect the aggregate opinion, or forecast, of what data will be in the report,” he said. “More importantly, these general expectations are often ‘bid into’ market prices before the report’s release.”

He said there were quite a few surprises in the report if you compare it to the pre-report estimates. For example, the 180-pounds and over market hog category was the largest change in inventory from a year ago, with a 3 percent increase, compared to last December.

The report said the United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on Dec. 1, 2025, was 75.5 million head, up 1 percent from Dec. 1, 2024, and up slightly from Sept. 1, 2025.

U.S. breeding inventory, at 5.95 million head, was down 1 percent from last year, but up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 69.6 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up slightly from last quarter, the report added.

The report said United States hog producers intend to have 2.89 million sows farrow during the December 2025-February 2026 quarter, up 2 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, but down 1 percent from the same period two years earlier.

The report added intended farrowings for March-May 2026, at 2.91 million sows, are up 2 percent from the same period one year earlier, but down slightly from the same period two years earlier. The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 52 percent of the total United States hog inventory, up 2 percent from the previous year.

The September-November 2025 pig crop, at 35 million head, was up slightly from 2024. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.93 million head, up slightly from 2024. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.93 for the September-November period, compared to 11.92 last year.

Schulz said the last 17 quarterly U.S. pigs saved per litter estimates have been records for their respective quarters: “While analysts expected another year-over-year litter rate gain and a record for the September through November quarter, they expected a lower rate of increase than has been realized over the last couple of years. On average, analysts expected the September through November 2025 litter rate up 0.8 percent, compared to the same quarter in 2024.”

He added, “Normally, when setting a new record, in anything, it’s by a razor-thin margin. Records are highly context dependent. Setting a new one isn’t just about talent or hard work. It also often takes a synergy of good circumstances and good luck. How often do all the right variables align? For the number of pigs saved per litter, it appears favorable conditions are aligning more often than not, and that is expected to continue.”

When compared to year-ago levels, he said the report has less of a bearish tone because numbers aren’t largely above or largely below a year ago: “We’re kind of in that plus or minus a year-ago category. I think that does still very much align with the USDA’s latest production estimates. They have 2026 pork production up just slightly from 2025 levels, up 0.05 percent.”

He forecasts a moderately profitable 2026, with losses not projected until later this year: “There is opportunity. Allow for some upside participation. Use the tools available to help manage risk.”