OMAHA, Neb. – Farmers National Co. issued its 2025 farmland values report and market analysis, finding that after years of steady increases, prices and demand are trending slightly downward across geographic regions within Farm World’s readership area.

“After years of steady growth, we’re seeing the farmland market stabilize,” Colton Lacina, senior vice president of real estate operations at Farmers National, said in a summary of the report. “This isn’t a sign of collapse but a recalibration that reflects current commodity prices, input costs and regional production conditions.”

Areas with high crop yields, diversified farms, and dependable groundwater continue to attract buyers and maintain steady values, according to Farmers National. The study found that areas facing commodity price pressure, lower yields or limited alternative income sources are experiencing lower demand for farmland.

“Farmland values are increasingly determined locally, sometimes down to the township,” Lacina said. “Buyers are carefully assessing soil quality, the percentage of tillable acres, water access, and how a parcel fits into their current operations. Those details matter more than ever.”

East Region: Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky

In the latter part of 2025, land values across Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Kentucky showed “remarkable resilience and strength,” reported Jay Van Gorden, area sales manager for Farmers National.

“A strong mix of investor buyers and active farmers has driven competition and kept sale prices for high-quality farmland at record levels. Farmers National has seen multiple sales in the $15,000 to $19,000 per acre range in the past few weeks in our Eastern Region for highly tillable, productive soils in strong farming areas,” Van Gorden said.

He noted that farms with a lower percentage of tillable acres, woodland and medium-productivity soils in the region are not at record levels, but still command prices near the top of the range for their type. “1031 tax-deferred exchange funds from the sale of development land in urban areas continue to support strong land prices. Additionally, some post-harvest commodity price increases and a limited supply of land for sale relative to interested buyers continue to boost land values,” Van Gorden said.

East-Central Region: Illinois and Wisconsin

There was some softening in prices late in 2025, though land values in the East-Central Region remain generally stable. Vagaries in recent sales have sent mixed signals across the marketplace, according to Jim Ferguson, area vice president for Farmers National.

“In the past few weeks, there have been several notable sales, but brokers are also noting lower sale prices on high-quality tracts where strong competition previously seemed automatic. The market has seen multiple auctions end in no-sale or be sold afterward, indicating that farmer buyers – traditionally the main force behind Midwest bidding – are showing noticeably more caution than in previous years,” Ferguson said. “Aggressive bidding is less frequent, and many buyers seem more price-sensitive, carefully considering long-term returns and cash flow before pushing for top values. This has enabled investors to participate in sales that would have previously been outside their return thresholds.”

Ferguson added that profitability and an uncertain outlook remain key limiting factors. He noted that with more “arm’s-length” listings, softer auction competition, delayed USDA reports and 2025 yields trending slightly below expectations, buyers are cautious and sellers are “adjusting.”

While demand still outpaces supply, return expectations do not fully align with seller pricing, according to Ferguson. This creates a gap between what the most motivated buyers can justify and what certain sellers still expect.

“While this doesn’t prevent deals from happening, it influences them. Negotiation, realistic pricing, and strong marketing are more important than ever in bridging that gap in 2026,” Ferguson said.

Farm Credit Services reported that the first decline in Illinois farmland values since 2018 occurred in 2025 with a 4.41 percent drop. This was determined through a study of 22 “benchmark” farms across central and southern Illinois.

Lacina: stabilized market may provide investment opportunity

Some investors view the moderation in land values as an opportunity to enter the market at more disciplined prices, according to Lacina. “Investor buyers are focused on fundamentals,” he said. “They’re targeting land with strong lease potential and reliable income that can support long-term returns.”

In their report summary, Farmers National said the company anticipates “overall” stable U.S. farmland through the remainder of 2026, with ongoing divergence driven by local conditions. Opportunities may emerge in regions with weaker demand, with sellers’ success likely depending on accurate market insights and timing, the company advised.

“The farmland market isn’t weakening; it’s becoming more selective,” Lacina stated. “Whether buying or selling, the advantage will go to those who understand their local market and work with professionals who live and breathe those nuances daily.”