The International Grains Council has revised its world carryout numbers. More interest is starting to fall on the world corn inventory that the IGC is predicting at 292 million metric tons. This was a 2 mmt reduction from the prior estimate, and also 2 mmt less than what the USDA is using in global balance sheets. While still an adequate corn supply, this is well below the 315 mmt from just two years ago.

The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange updated its Argentine crop estimates mixed numbers. BAGE is predicting a corn crop of 61 mmt, up from their prior 57 mmt estimate. BAGE claims more acres were planted to corn than first thought. They now have total acreage at 20 million, up 741,000 from initial predictions. The Argentine corn crop is 25 percent harvested, giving analysts better crop data. BAGE has the Argentine soybean harvest at 6 percent complete and left crop size unchanged at 48.5 mmt.

In addition to the BAGE update the Rosario Grain Exchange put the Argentine corn crop at 67 mmt, claiming weather has been favorable for crop development. The USDA is using crops of 52 mmt on corn and 48.5 mmt for Argentine crops in global balance sheets.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and regardless of what we see for ceasefires, until this is fully open it will mean little for the energy market. Sources claim it will take at least six months to remove mines from the waters, and some reports indicate it will take a year for repairs to damaged infrastructure. Until these changes are made energy from the region is at a standstill. This is the reason for economists to say it will take at least a year for energy values to improve. Unfortunately, this means input costs will also remain elevated, mainly for fertilizer products.

One factor that is impacting global production is rising input costs. Even with calming tensions in the Persian Gulf, global fertilizer values remain above the level where farmers can afford them. Several countries have stated this, and now Argentina joins the list. Argentine officials claim fertilizer values are at a point where they are impacting planting decisions, specifically on winter wheat. Argentina typically begins planting its winter wheat crop around May 1st, and many farmers report they still do not have input coverage.

A similar impact is being seen in Australia. Australian farmers are not only facing high-priced fertilizer, but elevated diesel costs as well. Diesel fuel supplies are also a worry ahead of Australia’s planting season. Sources in Australia claim high costs of production will cut wheat acres to 9.1 million this year, a 14 percent reduction from last year. Australian farmers are opting for lower input intensive canola, with plantings forecast to increase 16 percent to 4.9 million.

China’s March soybeans were well below trade expectations. Total imports were 4 mmt with trade expecting 6.5 mmt. What trade was more interested in was where the soybeans originated from. China imported 1.85 mmt of US soybeans in March, a 24 percent decline from March 2025. Brazil supplied fewer soybeans to China at 1.4 mmt, but this was a 47.4 percent increase from last year. The quality issues that suspended Brazil loadings was the primary cause of the lower import total.

China has been an active wheat importer this year as the country tries to replace its domestic crop losses. China was subjected to flooding rains on last year’s wheat crop impacting not only yield but crop quality. Much of China’s wheat crop was termed unusable, pushing the country to make imports for both immediate needs and for blending. In the month of March China imported 490,000 mt of wheat, 160 percent of the volume in March 2025. Year-to-date imports total 1.71 mmt, a 495 percent increase from last year. China is also importing large volumes of sorghum and corn to help cover feed needs.

China has released its long range balance sheet estimates. Chinese officials claim the country will be producing 733 mmt of grain domestically by the year 2030. This is expected to increase another 20 mmt by 2035. This compares to China’s record domestic production of 715 mmt in 2025. Thoughts are this will cut China’s imports from 140.5 mmt this year to just 115 mmt by 2035. Soybean imports are expected to fall to just 82.5 mmt, a 26 percent decline from 2025. China is also forecasting a 3.9 percent decline in beef imports and an 8.2 percent decline to pork imports.

While the U.S. has seen its beef herd contract to record low numbers, the U.S. dairy herd is headed in the opposite direction. The end of March US dairy herd totaled 9.18 million cows. This was an addition of 8,000 head from February and 188,000 head more than March 2025. Fewer dairy animals are being culled which is also impacting U.S. beef stocks. The decline in dairy slaughter is also a main reason carcass weights are rising as beef breeds are naturally heavier than dairy.

The March cold storage data came in with few surprises. The U.S. frozen beef supply on March 31, 2026. totaled 410.52 million pounds, 2 percent less than the end of February and 3 percent below March 2025. Frozen pork stocks totaled 411.28 million pounds, 2 percent more than the end of February and a nearly steady total from a year ago. Frozen pork bellies totaled 47.29 million pounds, a 5 percent increase from February but a 13 percent decline from a year ago. Total red meat stocks were slightly lower from February and 2 percent less than last year.

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