The Sept. 1 U.S. corn inventory was slightly higher than trade was expecting. The U.S. corn supply on that date was 2.095 billion bu compared to last year’s 1.55 bbu. In effect, this is now the 2025/26 old crop carryout number. Of these stocks, 787 million bu were stored on-farm and 1.3 bbu were off-farm. Corn usage from June through August totaled 3.2 bbu, up from the 3.1 bbu a year ago.

Soybean stocks on Sept. 1 were a little tighter than trade expected at 315 mbu. This was 10 mbu less than Sept. 1, 2025. Soybean stocks were split with 90.4 million on-farm and 225 mbu off-farm. Soybean consumption in the last quarter was 744 mbu compared 685 mbu a year ago.

Wheat stocks on Sept. 1 came in at 1.846 bbu, close to trade estimates and below the 2.13 bbu from last year. Wheat reserves were split with 547 mbu on-farm and 1.3 bbu off-farm. Wheat use was well below last year at 608 mbu, 102 less than the same period in 2025.

Total U.S. wheat production for 2026 was 1.53 bbu, nearly matching the trade estimate and equal to the August estimate.

More analysts and crop scouts are voicing their concern over the quality of U.S. corn and soybean crops. Rains have started to become more common as harvest is trying to get underway, and while delays tend to support cash markets, we are now seeing the futures’ market take note. Crop scouts have left the U.S. corn yield steady in recent weeks, but now feel harvested acres may be down as more of the crop is cut for silage. Dr. Cordonnier, a well-followed crop scout, believes the U.S. may see 300,000 to 500,000 more acres of corn taken for silage to prevent fungus growth. There are also building concerns over stalk rot in areas with excessive rainfall.

There are also concerns over the quality of the U.S. soybean crop. Recent cycles of wet and dry are known to stress soybean pods, causing many to open prematurely, and generating yield loss.

The August soybean crush total came in at 209.63 million bu, slightly less than what trade was expecting. This compared to 222 mbu in July and 198 mbu from August 2025. This low crush was the result of plants taking down time for pre-harvest maintenance. Limited soybean supplies and strong basis values also limited monthly crush. Soy oil stocks at the end of August totaled 1.7 billion pounds, just under the average trade estimates. End of August meal stocks were 452,530 tons, well above the 367,000 tons at the end of July.

Ethanol grind in August consumed a respectable 477.73 mbu of corn. Strong ethanol margins of 40 to 45 cents per gallon have kept plants running at full capacity, taking limited time for maintenance. Dried distiller grain production came in at 1.85 million tons for the month.

The U.S. ethanol market is starting to monitor developments in the Brazilian market. Sources in Brazil report ethanol production in the central and southern regions of Brazil is down 27 percent from last year. Sizable losses in sugar production are limiting the volume of ethanol that can be manufactured. Brazil may need to produce more corn-based ethanol as a result, limiting the country’s export ability.

There have been some interesting shifts in global beef trade recently. A big one is China placing an additional 55 percent tariff on Brazil beef imports. Brazil has met its trade quota with China, and any additional trade will see this additional tax. This is the primary reason Brazil has been looking to fulfill other supplier quotas, mainly Uruguay’s.

In a related story, Japan has given final approval to beef imports from Argentina. These imports will need to come from areas in Argentina declared foot and mouth disease free. Japan has very strict quality and sanitary requirements, and being approved opens a door for Argentina to expand global trade. Japan, along with other importers, have been forced to find alternative beef sources as the supply of beef from the United States continues to decline.

The Aug. 21 cold storage report showed a build in red meat reserves from a year ago. U.S. frozen beef supplies on Aug. 31 totaled 407.12 million pounds, up 2 percent from the end of July and 5 percent more than last August. Pork reserves were 436.27 million pounds, down 1 percent from July but up 12 percent from a year ago. The pork belly supply dropped 35 percent from July to August at 23.68 million pounds, 1 percent less than a year ago. Total U.S. red meat reserves at the end of August were up 1 percent from July and 8 percent above August 2025.

The lack of Ukraine commodity exports due to the war with Russia is starting to impact the country’s ag economy. Ukraine’s September exports totaled 1.4 mmt for grain and 440,000 mt on oilseeds. These were just 46 percent of the potential exports that could have been made. This is cutting Ukraine revenue flow, and as a result, farmers in the country claim they will plant 17 percent fewer winter wheat acres this year.

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