The U.S. harvest is progressing, and as it does, more yield data is being collected. Some of these numbers are catching trade by surprise.

Reports out of Central Iowa indicate yields are up to 15 percent below last year along with higher fungus issues. Excessive summer rain is the primary reason being given for this quality loss. This is not the only region of the Corn Belt reporting suspect corn yields. Some regions of the Eastern Corn Belt claim corn yields will be 20 percent below a year ago. These yield reports are the primary reason we are seeing minimal corn sales right now. Farmers are selling soybeans which will make even more room to store corn this fall, helping support basis.

The U.S. cash commodity market remains stronger than normal for the harvest season. So far, U.S. farmers have been more willing to market soybeans this fall than corn which is often taken as a sign of better yields. Farmers have been reluctant corn sellers this fall and are showing no signs of changing their attitude as harvest progresses. Even with elevated soybean marketing, basis values on both corn and soybeans are better than average as demand has not subsided and is starting to build. The White House’s diesel support payments will likely further reduce selling interest as farmers will not need to generate cash flow.

U.S. soybean sales for export are nearly twice the volume of a year ago, but so far, market reaction has been muted. This is because the majority of the sales up to this point have been to China. China has now booked 11.3 million mt of U.S. soybeans and unknown buyers have 6.4 mmt of purchases. While positive, China has soybean purchase obligations of 25 mmt, and until this is surpassed, trade reaction to daily purchases will be limited. Other buyers are starting to book U.S. soybeans though, and this is adding complex support.

China’s feed grain imports remain well above a year ago despite record domestic production. China imported 430,000 mt of corn in September, an incredible 663 percent increase from September 2025. Year to date, China has imported 2.11 million mt of corn, a 126 percent increase from 2025. China’s September wheat imports totaled 310,000 mt, a 22 percent decline from last September. China’s 2026 imports through September were still up 28 percent from a year ago at 3.83 mmt. China also imported 940,000 mt of sorghum in September, a 39 percent increase from last year. Year-to-date sorghum imports total 6.44 mmt, up 76 percent from 2025.

One commodity China did cut back on importing in September was pork. Monthly imports totaled 60,000 mt, a decline of 19 percent from last September. Year-to-date pork imports total 560,000 mt, 28 percent less than a year ago.

The main reason for the decline in Chinese pork imports has been internal hog culling and downsizing. China’s domestic pork production for the calendar year through September was up 3.2 percent from last year at 45.08 million tons. Hog slaughter over this period was 537 million head, a year-to-year increase of 1.4 percent. China’s government wants to see more culling to restore profitability to the hog industry and this will elevate production even more, and lower import demand even further. This culling comes at a time when China’s domestic pork demand has fallen over 5 percent as diets shift to more beef.

China also imported 11.88 million metric tons of soybeans in September, a 7.7 percent decline from September 2025. Overflowing crush supplies and a drop in crush margins limited China’s incoming soybean flow. Of these imports, 10.7 mmt originated from Brazil, a 2.4 percent decline from a year ago. China imported just 360,878 mt from the U.S. during the month. Year to date, China has imported 11.06 mmt of U.S. soybeans, a decline of 34 percent from last year. China has taken 65.84 mmt of Brazil soybeans, a 3.4 percent gain on the year.

The tight European Union corn situation may have long lasting implications for the global market. Extreme temperatures and drought conditions negatively impacted EU corn production this year, with the greatest losses in France. French officials claim the country harvested 7 mmt of corn this year, half of last year’s crop. This is the smallest French corn crop since 1976. The EU remains in a drought, and this may impact next year’s production along with a drop in revenue from this year’s crop loss. To see the EU make elevated purchases of U.S. corn from this situation is likely.

More regions of the world are reporting signs of the El Nino weather patterns. So far, the main point of impact has been in the Asian market and into Indonesia. This has started to impact vegetable oil production, mainly palm oil. The El Nino is also trimming production estimates in Australia, and there are more concerns being shown over potential drought in central and northern Brazil. At the same time, Argentina and other South American countries see favorable growing conditions during an El Nino. These conditions have elevated weather risk trade in the market, especially with the current El Nino the strongest one on record.

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