By MATTHEW D. ERNST

Missouri Correspondent

KINGDOM CITY, Mo. — “Will work for BACON” proclaimed T-shirts worn by workers in the Arby’s restaurant at the Interstate 70/U.S. Highway 54 interchange in Kingdom City.

It is a nod to the popularity of smoked pork side, as fast food promotions factored into higher-than-ever bacon prices this year. The average retail price per pound of bacon jumped 12.5 cents in September, to $6.37, the highest price ever, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was $1.25 more per pound than last November and December.

Foodservice buyers helped underpin the bacon price increase, according to an update from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. That came after record pork production in 2015 and 2016, and fewer restaurant chain bacon promotions had helped flatten pork belly prices.

Pork belly prices reversed course early in 2017 as “several fast food chains featuring bacon as a condiment on sandwiches or burgers, or even putting bellies on the menu as an entrée,” stated the LMIC. Case in point: The Arby’s Smokehouse Pork Belly Sandwich, offered earlier this year as a limited-time menu item.

The increased demand for pork bellies translated to real increases in pork carcass values. From January-July 2017, according to USDA, the value of the pork carcass increased from $80.56 to $103.25 per cwt.

More than half the increase in carcass value came from the value of belly primal cuts, according to Mildred Haley, USDA economist. “Consumers demanded higher quantities of pork for which they were willing to pay higher prices,” said Haley, in an October report.

Hog carcass prices then fell off from July-September, by about $26 per cwt., and two-thirds of the decline is attributed to lower value of belly primal cuts. But that decline could take a while to filter back to retail – especially since consumers here seem willing to continue paying higher prices for bacon.

That consumer appetite for bacon could lend further support to pork prices that have showed resilience as the U.S. sow herd increases. So far, increases in pork consumption are keeping step with increases in production, according to Chris Hurt, Purdue University economist.

“This means the industry can grow at a rate of 2 to 3 percent per year and not generate excess supplies that would depress prices below costs of production,” he explained.

That is a welcome forecast for U.S. hog farmers producing record numbers. The hog and pig inventory stood at almost 74 million on Sept. 1, the largest inventory reported since USDA started tallying hog and pig numbers in 1988.

Exports are also helping prop up prices for bacon, and other portions of the pork carcass cutout. The USDA expects more than 1.5 billion pounds of pork to be exported in the fourth quarter of 2017. That is 22 percent of production, compared with 21.9 percent that time last year.

Livestock economists, like Hurt, say growth in export sales is essential to supporting profitable hog producer prices. But will bacon get less expensive in the grocery store as pork supplies increase? That’s largely up to consumers frying up bacon at home, or deciding to spend on bacon eating out.

At the Kingdom City, Mo., location, a prominent banner suggests customers chow down on the Deep Fried Turkey Club sandwich – topped with Pepper Bacon.