We are starting to hear more reports on early U.S. harvest activity. Most of the harvest so far has been in the south, but a few scattered reports are coming in from the Upper Plains. Farmers claim late season drought and heat did impact the corn crop, with both yield and test weight below expectations. These reports are highly variable though and not consistent across the Corn Belt, making it difficult to predict actual crop sizes.

The Brazilian firm CONAB has released its 2025/26 crop updates. CONAB is now predicting a Brazil corn crop of 144 million metric tons, up 1 mmt from August. Corn exports were lowered to 43.9 mmt from last month’s 46.5 mmt estimate. Brazil corn ending stocks are forecast at 15.56 mmt, steady from a month ago. CONAB is forecasting a Brazil soybean crop of 180.4 mmt, down 60,000 mt from last month. Brazil’s soybean export and carryout forecasts were left unchanged at 116.4 mmt and 9.1 mmt, respectively. The USDA is currently predicting Brazil crops of 141 mmt on corn and 1286 mmt of soybeans.

The initial look at Brazil’s 2027 soybean production estimates is getting attention. CONAB predicted Brazil’s 2027 soybean plantings little changed from 2026 at 122 million acres. A total soybean crop is estimated at 181.64 mmt, up less than 1 percent from the 2026 crop. This is the smallest increase to Brazil soybean production in the past 20 years. Rising input costs and the strengthening El Nino are two factors behind the limited expansion, but so is tightening credit. More Brazil farmers are reporting difficulties in obtaining needed credit for production needs. Brazil’s 2027 soybean exports are forecast to increase 1.5 percent from this year to 118 mmt.

The National Oilseed Processor Association soybean crush report for the month of August received mixed reactions. Soybean crush for the month came in 7 million bu less than expected at 205.46 mbu. This was also well below the 217.65 mbu crushed in July. The August crush total was still a record for the month. The lower crush total was credited to plants taking down-time ahead of the fall harvest for annual maintenance. Soy oil stocks at the end of August totaled 1.2 billion pounds compared to 1.36 billion pounds at the end of July.

The August NOPA crush report was an overall friendly release, but one point of interest is being overlooked. Year-to-date NOPA crush now totals 2.58 billion bu compared to last year’s 2.3 bbu at this point. This is still under the USDA’s yearly estimate for 2.65 bbu of demand, but that includes non-NOPA members as well. Biofuel manufacturing is the leading cause of this added consumption.

Stats Canada updated the country’s main crop production estimates. Stats is now forecasting a Canadian wheat crop of 36.12 mmt, down 11 percent from last year’s crop. The biggest losses were in spring wheat production, same as the United States had in the Upper Plains. Canadian canola production was trimmed 1 percent to total 22.05 mmt. Canadian corn production is forecast to increase from 14.87 mmt last year to 16.55 mmt this year, and a soybean crop of 7.5 mmt compared to 6.9 mmt a year ago.

One takeaway from the September WASDE report was the increase to average cash value projections. This is from the tightening stocks to use on both corn and soybeans, with soybeans falling to a four-year low. At these levels, both corn and soybean demand needs to be rationed, which is the primary reason we have seen reductions to residual usage projections.

Ukraine officials have updated the country’s grain production and export forecasts. Despite the ongoing war with Russia, Ukraine officials believe the country will produce a 2026 grain crop of 65.2 million metric tons, a 7.8 percent increase from the prior estimate. Ukraine wheat production is forecast at 25 mmt, an increase of 2.4 mmt. Corn production is estimated at 32.3 mmt, up 2.5 mmt. Ukraine lowered its export forecast though due to ongoing disruptions in the Black Sea. Total grain exports are now forecast at 39.4 mmt, a 5 percent reduction from last year. Of these projected exports, 22 mmt are corn and 10.5 mmt is wheat.

Rising energy costs are starting to have a significant impact on the U.S. economy, mainly transportation. U.S. rail shippers are now charging a 48 cent per mile fuel surcharge, a 153 percent increase from last year. Of the rail freight seeing these surcharges, corn and soybeans are 11 percent of product moved. The most concern with these elevated rates is they are coming right at the start of the U.S. harvest.

Despite large domestic production, China’s imports of feed grain continue to rise. China imported 320,000 metric tons of corn in August, an increase of 784 percent from August 2025. Year-to-date Chinese corn imports total 1.68 million mt, 91 percent more than a year ago. China imported 260,000 mt of wheat this August, a 13.4 percent increase from 2025. Year-to-date wheat exports are up 36 percent from 2025 at 3.52 mmt. Sorghum imports totaled 620,000 mt in August, a 72 percent increase from last August. Year-to-year sorghum imports total 5.49 mmt, an increase of 85 percent.

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