BLOOMINGTON, Ill. – With corn and soybean prices expected to continue to languish at below-break-even levels into 2026, many producers are left wondering if and when fertilizer prices will respond accordingly. Far from receding, average fertilizer prices across the board were higher the week ending Nov. 13 except for liquid nitrogen, which held steady.

“This all comes down to actual supply and demand,” said Kevin “KJ” Johnson, president of the Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association (IFCA), responding to the Illinois Department of Agriculture’s Nov. 14 Fuel and Fertilizer Production Cost Report. The bi-weekly report showed that anhydrous ammonia sold for between $780 to $925 per ton, for an average price to farmers of $838.82. That’s an increase of $8.55 per ton over the previous report, which was issued Oct. 31.

DAP, at $785 to $930 per ton, averaged $884.56 at retail, up $5 per ton. Liquid nitrogen at 28 percent sold for $415 to $464, an average of $440.60 and $2 per ton higher than the previous report. Liquid N at 32 percent, at $475 per ton, was the only form of fertilizer to hold steady in price.

In addition, MAP, at $725 to $1,020 per ton, averaged $876 per ton, which was up $36.67 per ton. At $457 to $530 per ton, potash sold for an average of $501 per ton, up $7.08. Urea, at $575 to $625 average per ton price, sold for $612, up $5 per ton.

“The biggest thing, if there is sticker shock on anything, it is on phosphate prices,” Johnson said. “This is the one that jumps out at most people. One of the reasons you are seeing that is because of China. Back during COVID or just before, China supplied around one-third of the world’s phosphates. China is not exporting any phosphates.”

While the U.S. did not purchase vast amounts of phosphates from China, Brazil and other major crop-producing nations depended on Chinese fertilizers for their crops. But when one-third of the world’s supply of a product is taken off the market, prices will react correspondingly across the board, Johnson explained.

“We hope in this industry that China does start opening (phosphate exports) back up. Everyone is seeing at the retail level that (prices) for early buy-ins of phosphates for August 2026 are already starting to go up,” he said. “There is already talk within the industry that there is going to be pullback on the grower level.”

This is because farmers are already tightening their belts when it comes to fertilizer purchases, according to the IFCA leader. Word from many of the retailers comprising IFCA’s membership reaching Johnson is that up to 20 percent fewer sales were booked for 2025 fertilizers compared to the prior year.

“It won’t happen today with prices, but if (farmers) are still pulling back in the spring, that could drive prices. My worry is that in corn and soybean land, economics are not great. But what is in worse shape is cotton, which is truly underwater. What you could see is acres taken out of cotton and put into corn and soybeans that are still using those fertilizers,” Johnson said.

“You’ll need to see a pullback for at least a few months on demand to pull the price down on anything. I think it is starting to go in that direction, but if we are going to have 98 million acres of corn again there is going to be the same demand (for fertilizers).”

Specifically, IFCA-led research shows that farmers had been steady over the past three years in potash and nitrogen purchases at retail before tapering off in fall 2025. Sales figures also suggest that growers are likely not embracing other types of fertilizers in their stead.

“I think they are more rolling the dice that it’s going to be cheaper in the spring, or they’ve built up their P program over the years so they can pull back this year. I’m not hearing a bunch of guys saying they are not going to put any phosphates on in the spring, but I’m hearing that rates are coming down,” Johnson said.