It’s been an active weather week so far over the Hoosier state, and it looks like we will continue that trend for at least the next several days. When all is said and done, as we look back this on the week this coming weekend, we will have seen rain in parts of the region for five days of the previous seven.
We are slowly seeing a stationary front that was set up bisecting the region from this past weekend through yesterday moving away to the south and east. This will allow for a little bit of drier air to come in for May 16-17. However, do not let yourself get too comfortable with that drier forecast pattern.
High pressure will bring sunshine and moderate dry down, but the humidity levels will keep us from drying exceptionally fast. Now, the past few days have seen plenty of “holes” develop in the precipitation pattern, so there is an opportunity for some field work scattered about, mostly over the southern half of the Eastern Corn Belt. Up north it just has been too wet, and again, we are not going to dry it down exceptionally fast the next two days.
Rain works back into the region on May 18 as a wave lifts up from the south and west. The best rain system may develop this time around over southern Indiana and then through most of Ohio. We are not calling for Illinois, northern Indiana and Michigan to get missed, but we think the focal point for the biggest precipitation totals may end up being slightly farther to the east. We are putting rain totals at a quarter-inch to 1 inch over 70 percent of the region.
We follow that wave up with a mostly dry Saturday. However, on May 20, showers and thunderstorms return, first in the north, and then spreading south and east. We can see another quarter-inch to 1 inch of rain over 70 percent of the region.
This time around, the better rain systems may end up developing in the north and west. So, when you put the Friday system together with the Sunday wave, pretty much everyone is in the same combined rain range of one-half to 2 inches.
The map shows potential precipitation through the start of next week.
Next week is much drier, and kicks off a multi-day dry period. We should be rain-free across Indiana from May 21-25. Now, at midweek, around May 23 and into May 24, a disturbance will try to move into the northern part of Illinois and Wisconsin, moving into the Great Lakes.
We think this front lifts too far north to impact a large part of Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and even eastern Illinois at this time. That would allow dry weather to continue all the way through May 28, with our next front showing up around May 29. High pressure coming in from the northwest would dominate the 11-16 day forecast period.
Temperatures during the remainder of this week will still be normal to a bit above normal. However there will be a significant spread across Indiana. The northern areas, where rain and thunderstorms have been more frequent and clouds are more dominant, will see temperatures closer to normal.
Down south, with more sun, and better south flow, south of the stationary boundary, we will see temperatures take off and be well above normal. This dynamic could fuel thunderstorm development, especially later Friday.
Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.