U.S. dairy farmers are putting the pedal to the medal in milk production as low feed costs and good milk and beef returns provide incentive for expansion. Milk output surpassed that of a year ago for the fifth month in a row in May.

The Agriculture Department’s latest Milk Production report shows output hit 19.930 billion pounds, up 1.6 percent from May 2024. The top 24 state total, at 19.137 billion pounds, was up 1.7 percent. The April 50-state total was revised up 15 million pounds, up 1.6 percent from April 2024, instead of the 1.5 percent originally reported. The 24-state total was raised by 17 million pounds, up 1.7 percent, instead of 1.6 percent.

Component adjusted production was up 3.0 percent, according to StoneX, and has been 3.0 percent or higher in three of the last four months. They believe it will remain above 3.0 percent through June and possibly July.

May cow numbers totaled 9.445 million, up 5,000 head from April and 114,000 or 1.2 percent more than a year ago. The April count was revised up 15,000 head. The 24-state count, at 9.004 million, was up 6,000 from April and 118,000 or 1.3 percent above a year ago. The April count was revised up 15,000 head. The U.S. dairy herd has grown 121,000 head in the last 11 months.

May output per cow in the 50 states averaged 2,110 pounds, up 7 pounds or 0.3 percent from a year ago, and averaged 2,125 pounds, up 7 pounds or 0.3 percent in the 24-state data. April’s output was revised down 2 pounds in both.

California, still recovering from bird flu, saw its milk output down 64 million pounds or 1.8 percent from a year ago, and down for the eighth month in a row. Cow numbers were up 2,000 head but output per cow was down 40 pounds.

Wisconsin output was down 3 million pounds or 0.1 percent, due to a 7,000-cow drop. Output per cow was up 10 pounds. Idaho boosted output 87 million pounds or 6.0 percent, thanks to 31,000 more cows and a 30 pound gain per cow.

Kansas again scored the biggest percentage increase, up 15.7 percent, thanks to 26,000 more cows milked, and a 10-pound-gain per cow. Michigan was up 3.2 percent on 9,000 more cows and a 25-pound-gain per cow. Minnesota was off 0.4 percent, on a loss of 5,000 cows, though output per cow was up 15 pounds.

New Mexico was up 0.2 percent on 1,000 additional cows but output per cow was down 5 pounds. New York was up 1.3 percent on 8,000 more cows, though output per cow was unchanged.

Oregon was down 2.3 percent on 2,000 fewer cows and a 10-pound drop per cow. Pennsylvania was unchanged, with a 5-pound-gain per cow offsetting the loss of 1,000 cows. South Dakota was up 9.5 percent, thanks to 18,000 more cows and a 20-pound-gain per cow.

Texans put an additional 128 million pounds of milk in the tank than a year ago, up 8.9 percent, thanks to 45,000 more cows and a 40-pound-gain per cow.

Vermont was up 0.5 percent, thanks to a 30-pound-gain per cow offsetting the loss of 1,000 cows. Washington State was down 3.3 percent, on a drop of 10,000 cows. Output per cow was up 10 pounds from a year ago.

Cow numbers are behind the growing milk output, says Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank. Speaking in the June 30 Dairy Radio Now broadcast, Geiger said cow numbers have increased 114,000 head the past 12 months and in the past five months, farmers have added 90,000 head. He adds that butterfat and protein content has doubled the growth of milk production.

The big question is where are the heifers coming from considering the beef on dairy movement in genetic breeding programs, which has resulted in dairy heifers being at their lowest level in 20 years. Geiger says USDA reports average prices at $2,900 but he has seen 2-year-old cows bring $4,000 at auction.

Furthermore, farmers are culling less, as numbers were down 98,000 head.

Speaking of beef, Texas became the seventh state to ban lab-grown meat and joins Indiana, Nebraska, Montana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Jack Hubbard, executive director of the Center for the Environment and Welfare, says, “The lab-grown meat sector will continue to face headwinds as consumers and lawmakers learn more about the lack of long-term health studies and use of ‘immortalized cells.’ We are seeing a bipartisan consumer movement against the experimental product that is gaining more and more momentum.”

Checking the fields, the latest Crop Progress report shows 97 percent of the U.S. corn crop emerged, as of the week ending June 22, up from 94 percent the previous week, 1 percent above a year ago, and 1 percent behind the five-year average. Seventy percent was rated good to excellent, down 2 percent from the previous week, and 1 percent behind a year ago.

Soybeans were 96 percent planted, up from 93 percent the previous week, dead even with a year ago, and 1 percent behind the five-year average. Ninety percent had emerged, up from 84 percent the previous week, 1 percent ahead of a year ago, and squares with the average. 66 percent were rated good to excellent, unchanged from the previous week, but 1 percent behind a year ago.

Last weekend saw bombs dropping on Iran and a different kind of heat in much of the Central U.S. and moving east. This could impact milk production in those regions, depending on how long it lasts. The entry of the U.S. into the Israel-Iran war could impact domestic as well as global dairy markets, even as a shaky ceasefire was announced Monday.

The summer heat is beginning to affect milk production nationally, according to Dairy Market News. Some areas were not seeing a noticeable drop, while others were. Milk components were also dropping as temperatures rise. Class I milk bottling is seasonally low with facilities diverting milk to manufacturing. Class II production is strong. Ice cream and frozen dairy mix manufacturing is helping offset the decrease in bottling. Cream spot loads are getting purchased for ice cream production, says Dairy Market News.

Meanwhile, May butter and cheese inventories remained below those a year ago, thanks in large part to strong exports. The USDA’s latest Cold Storage report shows May 31 butter stocks at 361.6 million pounds, up 24.7 million pounds or 7.3 percent from April, but still 18.2 million or 4.8 percent below those in May 2024. April stocks were revised down 530 pounds from last month’s report.

American type cheese stocks climbed to 807.4 million pounds, up 5.6 million or 0.7 percent from the April level, but down 8.7 million pounds or 1.1 percent from a year ago. The April total was revised 4 million pounds lower.

The “other” cheese category hit 582.3 million pounds, up 3.7 million or 0.6 percent from the April level, but was down 14.3 million pounds or 2.4 percent from a year ago. The April data was revised down 443 pounds.