The July U.S. supply and demand update from the USDA cut corn production by 115 million bu, which was fully expected from the downward revision to harvested acres in the June acreage report. This put the U.S. crop at 15.7 billion bu. The USDA raised its export forecast but cut feed and residual demand for a net reduction to 2025/26 ending stocks of 90 mbu from June to a total of 1.66 bbu. The USDA left its average cash price estimate unchanged this month at $4.20.

The biggest surprise in corn data came from the global side. The USDA cut its 2025/26 ending stocks estimate to 272.08 million metric tons, well below the 277.5 mmt that was expected. This was also a sizable cut from 275.24 mmt in June.

The U.S. 2025/26 soybean balance sheets also incorporated the June acreage data. This trimmed the U.S. soybean crop to 4.3 bbu, a slight 5 mbu cut from last month. The USDA added 50 mbu of crush demand this month, but trimmed exports by 70 mbu from the elevated domestic usage. This is expected to add 15 mbu to U.S. ending stocks, taking them up to 315 mbu. This was enough for a 15-cent reduction to the average cash price outlook, putting it at $10.10. Even with this slight build, U.S. soybean reserves remain in a rationing position.

Few changes were made to the global soybean balance sheets for 2025/26, leaving ending stocks at 126.07 mmt. This was a slight increase from the 125.3 mmt in June, but less than what trade was expecting.

The 2025 U.S. total wheat crop was estimated at 1.929 bbu, slightly higher than trade estimates and 8 mbu more than the June forecast. Higher yields are expected to offset lower harvested acres on wheat. The average U.S. wheat yield is now estimated at 52.6 bushels per acre, an increase of 1 bushel from June. Wheat ending stocks were pegged at 890 mbu for 2025/26, 8 mbu less than June’s estimate. The projected cash value on U.S. wheat was left unchanged at $5.40 per bushel.

Only minimal adjustments were made to the world wheat balance sheets, but they were still favorable. Ending stocks are now estimated at 261.5 mmt, 1.2 mmt less than trade was expecting and the June number, both.

The USDA cut 2025 U.S. beef production bu 170 million pounds, taking it to 26.19 billion pounds as the U.S. cattle herd continues to contract. Beef production for 2026 is now estimated at 25.82 billion pounds, up a large 540 million pounds. Beef exports are projected at 2.729 billion pounds for 2025 and 2.565 billion pounds for 2026. Beef imports are estimated at 5.37 billion pounds for 2025 and 5.35 billion pounds for 2026, but this was prior to the trade rift with Brazil, which is a major source of beef imports.

Pork production is now estimated at 28.04 billion pounds for this year and 28.48 billion for next year. Pork exports are forecast to remain strong with 6.98 billion pounds for this year and 7 billion pounds for 2026.

The average steer value projection is $221.31 per hundredweight for 2025 and $228.50 a cwt for 2026. Hog values are projected at $68.57 for 2025 and $64.75 for next year.

The Brazilian firm CONAB released its updated balance sheets. CONAB is now predicting a soybean crop of 169.5 mmt, 100,000 mt less than their June number. The group’s soybean export forecast held steady at 106.2 mmt and ending stocks declined 1 mmt to total 3.8 mmt.

CONAB’s corn crop estimate is now 131.98 mmt, a month-to-month increase of 3.7 mmt. Brazil’s corn export forecast is now at 36 mmt, a 2 mmt increase from June, and ending stocks are forecast at 9.55 mmt, up 1 mmt. Brazil’s wheat crop was trimmed from 8.2 mmt down to 7.8 mmt.

CONAB is predicting Brazil wheat imports of 6.2 mmt, but newly set U.S. tariffs may prevent the U.S. from getting much of the business.

The U.S. cattle complex continues to trade near all-time highs. The latest rally came on the news the U.S. would be tariffing Brazil imports at 50 percent, including beef. Brazil supplies the U.S. with a large amount of beef for hamburger, which is in high demand. Brazilian officials have stated a 50 percent tariff will make trade uneconomical. It is also unclear if tariffs will cover current purchases, which has halted shipments. There is little doubt this will raise the retail cost of beef in the United States, causing further economic stress for the U.S. consumer.

The Consumer Price Index for June was released, showing U.S. inflation is still creeping higher. U.S. inflation in June 2025 was up 2.7 percent from June 2024, equal to estimates, and up from May’s 2.4 percent reading. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, was up 2.9 percent from June to June. This was just under the 3 percent that was expected, but up from 2.8 percent in May. A decline in auto prices kept inflation in control during the month. June was the 5th consecutive month inflation has grown less than expected, although the trend is still higher.

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