Senate lawmakers finally agreed on legislation to reopen the government, and the House voted its approval Nov. 12, 222 to 209, with six Democrats joining all but two Republicans to approve the measure. President Donald Trump signed the legislation hours later, but the aftermath of the longest-ever shutdown is far from over however, especially if you were flying this week or last.

The shutdown delayed the latest milk production data by a few weeks and, unlike affected government workers, U.S. milk cows kept working. There were many more of them in September and output per cow saw healthy gains. The USDA’s preliminary data showed output hit 18.990 billion pounds, up 4.0 percent from September 2024, and followed a 3.4 percent gain in August. The 24-state total, at 18.279 billion, was up 4.2 percent, after gaining 3.6 percent in August.

The growth from August to September was counter-seasonal, says HighGround Dairy, and the herd size is the biggest since second quarter 1993.

August output in the 50 states was revised to 19.543 billion, up 23 million pounds from last month’s estimate, and 3.4 percent above a year ago, instead of the 3.2 percent originally reported. The 24-state total was revised to 18.8 billion, up 44 million pounds or 3.6 percent above a year ago, instead of the 3.3 percent reported.

September cow numbers totaled 9.581 million head, up 40,000 head from August, and 228,000 or 2.4 percent more than a year ago. The August count was revised up 21,000 head. The 24-state head count, at 9.146 million, was up 38,000 from August, and 235,000 or 2.6 percent above a year ago. The August count was revised, up 33,000 head. The herd has grown 191,000 head since January.

Output per cow averaged 1,982 pounds, up 30 pounds or 1.5 percent from a year ago in the 50 states and averaged 1,999 pounds in the top 24, up 30 pounds or 1.5 percent. Revisions reduced the August national average two pounds and took three pounds off in the 24 states.

StoneX broker Dave Kurzawski called the report “a big, big, bearish number,” and pointed out that fat and protein in the milk was also up so component adjusted growth was up a whopping 6.1 percent.

He attributed the milk output increase primarily to cows being added at the fastest pace in some 40 years and reminiscent of the expansion in the mid-1980s when the government paid farmers to stop producing milk for a period of time and when those payments ran out, the herd rebounded very quickly. The past 15 months, cow numbers were up 58,000 head or 2.8 percent, according to Kurzawski.

“The market is trying to figure this all out and weigh it against demand,” he said, “which seems to be spotty and lackluster at best. The bright spot in the U.S. this year has been exports and now you look at Europe and global prices and they have been coming down on butter and cheese for example.”

He said it’s mainly the cheese market that’s reeling from the lack of exports at the moment and, “While butter prices are also coming down, so have U.S. prices, almost an equal distant dynamic so we’re still in a very good spot to export butter and we’ll know more when the government reopens and those reports are made available.”

As to the impact of the shutdown on the dairy industry, besides missing some USDA reports, Kurzawski speculated that consumers pulled back a little on spending, understandable if you haven’t been paid the past month, but “The reopening might produce a sales burst as we go into the holidays and people feel more joyful.”

Cash 40-pound block Cheddar dropped to $1.5525 per pound Wednesday, lowest CME price since April 12, 2024. It regained a quarter-cent Thursday, closing at $1.5550, after finishing Friday at $1.66, and that was down 10.75 cents on the week.

The 500-pound Cheddar barrels fell to $1.6425 per pound Thursday, lowest since Sept. 26, 2025, after finishing Friday at $1.70. That was down 10.50 cents on the week.

Central region cheesemakers are running busy schedules, according to Dairy Market news, though some are operating below capacity, due to scheduled downtime. Milk production is steady in the region and some contacts continue to send milk to bottlers, reducing Class III sales. Spot Class III demand remains light as some cheesemakers say they have volumes available and are not purchasing additional loads. Class III milk prices at mid-week ranged from flat to $1.50 over class. Retail cheese demand is strengthening, while food service sales remain somewhat light. Lower prices for cheese in Europe are having a negative impact on export demand. Spot loads of cheese blocks are available, says DMN, but contacts report cheese barrel inventories are tighter.

Cheese manufacturers in the west are receiving sufficient milk and spot load demand varies from steady to stronger, says DMN. In a few cases, milk production is below anticipated volumes and cheese producers were securing milk. Cheese production is steady. Domestic demand varies from moderate to steady. Export demand varies from steady to strong. Demand among buyers for securing first and second quarter 2026 loads is active, according to DMN, while availability of varietal cheese loads is mixed.

CME butter started the week jumping 3.50 cents to $1.51 per pound, then gave back a penny Tuesday. It gained 5.25 cents Thursday, climbing back to $1.5525, following a Friday close at $1.4750.

Milk output is steady in the Central region, but component levels are up from a year ago. Cream production is steady, but contacts say inventories are tightening somewhat. Some butter makers are increasing their internal usage of cream and reducing the volume they sell. Demand for cream is steady from butter makers, but Class II sales are picking up. Butter production is strong. Retail butter demand is strengthening as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, but food service sales remain light. Export demand is strong as domestic 82 percent butterfat butter is offered at competitive prices compared to that produced in Europe.

A few western butter manufacturers reported that milk intakes were below anticipated volumes, however, there’s plenty of spot cream available to make up any shortages from lower milk intakes. Spot cream demand is stronger for butter producers and butter output is strong. Retail and bulk butter production is heavily active. Some butter producers reported that their bulk production lines were primarily focused on loads for international customers. This is tightening availability of bulk butter loads for domestic buyers. 

This is expected to continue into next year. Salted 80 percent butterfat butter is readily available, while unsalted 80 percent butter is somewhat tight. Domestic butter demand is mixed, while export demand varies from steady to stronger, according to DMN.

Grade A nonfat dry milk saw a little strength this week and traded Thursday at $1.1725 per pound, 2.75 cents higher on the week so far, after finishing Friday at $1.1450.

Dry whey continued to be the brightest spot in the market, jumping 2 cents Monday, then gained another 2 cents Tuesday, hitting 75 cents per pound, equaling the price on January 3 of this year. It stayed there Thursday morning, following a Friday close at 71 cents per pound.