No changes were made to U.S. corn balance sheets in the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. This held the U.S. corn carryout at 2.127 billion bu. The USDA did raise the average cash corn estimate by 5 cents per bushel though, putting it at $4.15 per bushel. This was from demand, as corn consumption for the first half of the marketing year was 9.6 bu, 1 bbu more than a year ago. This elevated demand is starting to offset the bearishness of last year’s record crop.

As with corn, no changes were made to soybean carryout this month. This held ending stocks at 350 million bu. We did see an increase to crush of 35 mbu but an equal reduction to exports. The USDA still bumped its soybean value up by 10 cents to an average of $10.30 per bushel.

Minimal adjusting was seen in the wheat balance sheets this month. The USDA increased imports 5 mbu and lowered seed usage by 2 mbu for a 7 mbu increase to ending stocks when an 8 mbu reduction had been expected. This put the U.S. carryout at 938 mbu. Even with this increase the USDA raised the average cash value by 5 cents, taking it to an even $5.00 per bushel.

Global ending stocks adjustments were mixed this month. Corn carryout is now estimated at 294.81 mmt, 600,000 mt more than expected. The world soybean carryout is now forecast at 124.79 mmt, 500,000 mt less than in March. The world wheat ending stocks came in 5.5 mmt more than expected at 283.12 mmt.

Only minimal changes were made to U.S. beef and pork production numbers as well. Beef production for 2026 is now estimated at 25.79 billion pounds, a 20-million-pound reduction from March’s estimate. The average steer value is now $241.66 per hundredweight, 34 cents under the March projection. Pork production is estimated at 27.98 billion pounds, 300 million less than in March. The average hog value is now $69.13 per cwt, a month-to-month decline of $1.13.

On the demand side, U.S. beef exports are now estimated at 2.365 billion pounds for 2026, 30 million fewer than in March. Beef imports for the year were bumped up to 5.79 billion pounds, 115 million more than last month. Pork exports were elevated by 15 million pounds, putting them at 7.2 billion pounds.

Inflation is once again becoming a market topic, and this has now started to be seen in world food values. The global food cost index increased 2.4 percent in the month of March, the 2nd consecutive month of rising food values. March’s increases were driven by a 7 percent increase in sugar and a 5.1 percent gain in vegetable oils. These rising food costs are compounding the negative economic impact of elevated energy costs following the start of the U.S./Iran war. The concern from several economists is that the full negative impact of the Iran war has not been felt yet, nor the added tariff costs.

This rise in inflation is not just being seen on the retail side. Production costs are rising as well, mainly for energy products and crop inputs, especially fertilizer. More farmers from across the U.S. are indicating they may need to switch intended crops as costs are rising above breakeven on some crops, mainly those needing higher volumes of nitrogen. Farmers in other regions of the globe are facing the same inflation and input concerns, specifically Australia and Brazil.

The latest official Census U.S. export data for the month of February was mixed. Corn exports totaled 266.5 million bu in February, a 2.4 percent increase from January and a record for the month. Soybean exports were 154.2 mbu, a 28 percent decline from January but a 34.6 percent increase from February 2025. Wheat exports in February were 71.28 mbu, a 26.7 percent increase from January and a six year high for the month. The U.S. also exported a record 794.45 million gallons of ethanol in the month of February.

Red meat exports were well divided in February. Beef exports totaled 183.3 million pounds, a 6 percent decline from January and a 10-year low. This was not a surprise given the low U.S. cattle inventory and lower beef production. February pork exports totaled 574.24 million pounds, a 2.7 percent decline from January but the 4th largest January volume on record.

A story that is making its way through the market is the heavy rain that has recently moved through the Eastern Corn Belt and its impact on soil conditions. Some analysts immediately started talking about excessive moisture and its potential impact on planting conditions. Given the fact many of the impacted areas have yet to reach insurance plant dates, wet fields are not a worry for the market. In fact, building soil moisture ahead of the growing season is more bearish than bullish.

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