WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – A monthly survey that monitors farmer sentiment dropped sharply in January, an indication producers are concerned about the economics of farming, according to the director of the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index fell 23 points, from 136 in December to 113 last month. The survey of 400 farmers across the U.S. was conducted Jan. 12-16. The results were released Feb. 3.

“(This) brings this index to the lowest it’s been for quite a while,” said Michael Langemeier, also a Purdue professor of agricultural economics. “In fact, we haven’t seen this lower reading since September 2024, which, of course, was before the 2024 election. So this was a pretty big shock in terms of sentiment.”

Two of the barometer’s sub indices – the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations – also fell. The current conditions index was down 19 points to 109, while the future expectations index fell 25 points to 115.

A value of greater than 100 shows positive sentiment toward the economy, while values lower than 100 indicate negative sentiment.

One question on the survey asked respondents if they think it is more likely that U.S. agriculture, during the next five years, will have widespread good times or widespread bad times.

“The percentage that indicated good times dropped sharply, from 46 percent to 34 percent,” Langemeier said during the Feb. 3 Purdue Commercial AgCast. “The percentage that said bad times went from 24 percent to 46 percent, so a very large percentage that indicated that they thought agriculture was going to have bad times in the next five years.

“This helps explain why the Index of Future Expectations declined so much. It was primarily due to this particular question.”

The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released Jan. 12. While the survey didn’t ask any questions about it, Langemeier said the news coming out of the report wasn’t positive, especially for corn.

“They actually increased the U.S. yield by a half bushel,” he noted. “And they also increased the harvested acres, increasing the stocks to use up to about 13.5 percent. So, that may have been part of it.”

More negativity regarding exports may have also played a factor, Langemeier said. In addition, the indices related to financial performance were more negative in January than they were in December, he pointed out.

Farmers’ perspectives on U.S. agricultural exports were more pessimistic in January, according to the barometer. Sixteen percent of respondents looked for exports to decline over the next five years, the report said, up from December’s 5 percent. The percentage of farmers who thought exports would increase was 42 in January, down from 52 percent in December.

In a question asked only of corn and soybean producers, 21 percent said they thought there would be a decrease in soybean exports. Eighty percent said they were concerned, or very concerned, about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean exports with Brazil’s exports.

A couple of questions were asked of respondents regarding operating loans. The first question asked if farmers expect the size of their operating loans to be larger, smaller or about the same this year. Compared to January 2025, the results were somewhat similar, Langemeier said. There was a slight uptick in the percentage that though their operating loan was going to be larger – 21 percent in January 2026 and 18 percent in January 2025, he said.

The second question looked at why respondents expect a larger operating loan.

“It’s one thing to expect a larger operating loan due to higher input costs than unpaid operating debt,” Langemeier said. “There’s a lot of difference between those two.”

In January 2021-24, more than 60 percent of respondents said they were going to increase their operating loan because of higher input costs, he said. Since January 2025, the number has been around 50-55 percent. In the January 2026 survey, 31 percent of respondents said they would seek an increase in their operating loan due to unpaid operating debt.

Needing a bigger operating loan due to unpaid operating debt “can be a signal that perhaps they’re having some difficulty because of tight cash flow or low cash flow in repaying operating debt in a timely fashion,” Langemeier explained. “If you’re increasing the size of your operating loan primarily due to unpaid debt, that’s probably a signal we’re seeing more financial stress here in early 2026 then certainly we saw in 2023 and 2024, and so financial stress appears to be increasing.”