Now that the U.S. spring planting season is in its final stages, more attention is turning to crop progress and condition. Next week, we will start receiving crop condition numbers in weekly progress reports, and as always, become a factor in price discovery. While crop condition can be a factor in production, in several years we have seen favorable yields from lower rated crops. It is also nearly impossible to determine yield until much later in the growing season, particularly on soybeans. Trade tends to factor in crop ratings as we get closer to pollination and pod fill stages.

One question that is coming up as we get to later stages of the U.S. planting season is what we will see for final acreage. The U.S. is currently using 95.3 million corn and 84.7 million soybean acres in production estimates. This is a 3.5 million acres shift from corn to soybeans from last year, but some analysts have felt the shift may be greater given the elevated input costs at planting time. Record nitrogen prices were initially thought to have caused up to 2 million more acres to shift away from corn, but the actual shift may be much less. Nitrogen values have softened in recent weeks, although availability is still an issue. Some farmers have also spread out their spring nitrogen supply in hopes of side dressing for a lower cost later in the year.

There are two very different opinions on current Corn Belt weather, and both are right. Much of the weather focus across the United States right now is on the strengthening El Nino system. This has brought drought to several regions of the world, including the U.S. Plains, and wetter conditions to areas such as the Great Lakes and U.S. Delta. Of these, drought is gaining the most interest. There are already concerns in the market over the dry start to the growing season which has caused some analysts to walk back yield estimates. At the same time, several analysts point out the dry spring has allowed for a rapid planting pace and is allowing plants to form better root systems. The real question is how long drought conditions will last, and if they intensify.

We continue to see a division between the interior and export markets. Exports have started to see a little more seasonal pressure as the U.S. is the highest priced source for many commodities in the global market. This is not the case for the interior market though as basis values for both corn and soybeans remain firm. Basis has been strong for several months due to favorable processing margins with both soy crush and ethanol grind seeing record returns. The start of the U.S./Iran war increased demand for renewable fuels, giving margins even more support. Energy values have corrected recently, but at the same time, U.S. farmers are currently more interested in fieldwork than marketing, giving interior markets support.

Trade is once again paying close attention to Chinese weather. China is again receiving excessive rainfall, with Sitonia consulting claiming some regions of the country have seen precipitation levels from 200 to 400 percent above normal. The majority of this rain has fallen in China’s wheat production areas, bringing another year of wheat crop stress. This comes right as China is set to start its wheat harvest. Not only may this impact yields, but also condition, with some sprouting already noted. The International Grains Council has already trimmed world wheat production 25 million metric tons from last year to this year, and further cuts may be likely.

A major shift has taken place in India’s soy meal balance sheets. India has been exporting soy meal, but has now cancelled 25,000 mt of previous sales. A complete reversal was made and India booked soy meal for import. This will create a shift in global trade patterns that could easily end up benefiting the United States.

The April cold storage report was mostly as expected. On April 30th, the United States had 408.34 million pounds of beef in cold storage, fractionally higher than the end of March but 3 percent below April 2025. Frozen pork stocks at the end of April were 415.94 million pounds, a 9 percent increase from March but 4 percent below last year. Pork bellies in the freezers totaled 52.4 million pounds, a 15 percent increase on the month and an 8 percent decline on the year. Total U.S. red meat stocks at the end of April were up 4 percent from March and down 4 percent from 2025.

The May cattle on feed contained a few surprises for trade. On May 1st, the United States had 11.6 million head of cattle on feed, a 2 percent increase from last year. April placements were well above expectations at 1.7 million head, 6 percent more than in April 2025. Pasture stress and an early end to winter pastures are the reasoning for the higher April placements. A large drop in May is already being predicted. April marketings were 10 percent fewer than a year ago at 1.64 million head which is not surprising given tight cattle numbers.

One increase we did see to cattle numbers was in the U.S. dairy herd. At the end of April, the U.S. had a dairy herd of 9.65 million head, a 10,000 head increase from March. This was also 190,000 head more than last year and led to a 2.8 percent increase in U.S. milk from production from April 2025 to 2026.

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