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| Total meat production drops nearly 3 percent from 2008 |
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The odds are almost 100 percent that production of all meats will be down in 2009 compared to 2008. USDA current estimate is for pork production to be down 2.6 percent, beef 0.1 percent, chicken 3.8 percent and turkey down 7.4 percent. This would mean total meat production in 2009 would be down 2.8 percent from a year earlier.
USDA estimate of meat production in 2010 compared to 2009 is for a 0.5 percent decline in pork, a 2 percent decline in beef, a 1.7 percent increase in chicken and a 2.1 percent increase in turkey compared to 2009.
We certainly hope the USDA estimate of pork production is too high for 2010. The probabilities are very low that demand will grow enough to give profitable prices for an average cost producer with only a 0.5 percent decline in supply in 2010 compared to this year.
Even though current signs show producers basically moving the herd sideways with the potential for little growth or loss in size, with the losses now indicated for 2009 for hog producers the odds favor a larger decline in production than 0.5 percent in 2010 compared to 2009.
The cash hog market started the week very strong with the negotiated carcass price in western Corn Belt up $5.74 the first two days of the week. Pork cutout led the change with the cutout per cwt. of carcass Thursday afternoon at $61.85 per cwt. up $3.27 per cwt. for the week.
Loins at $76.05 per cwt. were up $3.94 per cwt., Boston butts at $72.46 per cwt. were up $16.47 per cwt., hams at $45.06 per cwt. were up $0.26 per cwt. and bellies at $77.19 per cwt. were down $2.59 per cwt. on Thursday compared to seven days earlier.
Pork exports in March were up 2.2 percent from a year earlier while pork imports were basically the same as a year earlier.
Pork exports for January-March were down 6.6 percent from 2008 while pork imports were down 6.6 percent from 2008 while pork imports were down 5.5 percent from the same months 12 months earlier.
Net pork exports as a percentage of pork production for January-March of 2009 at 14.25 percent down from 14.74 percent a year earlier or down 3.3 percent from 2008.
For January-March, our pork exports to Japan were up 9.7 percent, to Mexico up 59.6 percent, to Canada down 2.6 percent, to South Korea down 9.2 percent, to Russia down 44.9 percent, to Australia up 54.9 percent, to Taiwan up 99 percent, to China Hong Kong down 62.8 percent and to other countries up 2.3 percent compared to 2008.
Live hog imports for January-March from Canada were down 39.6 percent from last year. Both slaughter and feeder pig imports were down from a year earlier.
Live hog prices Friday morning were up $5.00-7.25 per cwt. compared to a week earlier. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices Friday morning were up $5.91 to $10.10 per cwt. compared to seven days earlier.
The top live prices for select markets Friday morning were: Peoria $38 per cwt., Zumbrota, Minnesota, $41 per cwt. and interior Missouri $45.50 per cwt.
The prices for last week for feeder pigs nationally were steady to $2 per head lower than a week earlier.
These prices were 10 pound basis pigs 50-54 percent lean $35.75 per head. The average price for 50-54 percent lean basis 40 pound pigs were $44.29 per head.
Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 2.076 million head, up 0.7 percent from the same week in 2008.
The weighted average negotiated carcass price by area Friday morning were: western Corn Belt $6.77 per cwt., eastern Corn Belt $59.94 per cwt., Iowa-Minnesota $63.89 per cwt. and nation $61.62 per cwt. |
| 5/20/2009 |
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