Domestic corn balance sheets saw the most changes in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Corn exports rose 100 million bu to a record 3.3 billion bu for this year. This was the only change to corn balance sheets, taking carryout to 2.127 bbu which was on the low end of expectations but not a critical level. The average cash value was left unchanged at $4.10.

No changes took place to soybean balance sheets this month. This held soybean carryout at 350 mbu and the average cash value at $10.20 per bushel. 

Minimal changes took place to wheat balance sheets. Milling demand was trimmed by 5 mbu and that was the only change to either side. This raised the U.S. wheat carryout estimate to 931 mbu, slightly higher than the average guess. The average cash value on wheat also held steady at $4.90.

Global carryout estimates were little changed as well. Corn ending stocks are estimated at 288.98 million metric tons, 2 mmt lower than January and below the average trade guess. World soybean carryout is estimated at 125.51 mmt, up 1.1 mmt from January and slightly above trade expectations. The global wheat carryout is now estimated at 277.51 mmt, down 700,000 mt from January and below trade estimates by the same amount. 

A few more changes were seen in the red meat balance sheets this month. U.S. beef production for 2026 is estimated at 25.92 billion pounds, a 190-million-pound increase from the January estimate. Beef exports are estimated at 2.425 billion pounds, steady from last month. Beef imports are estimated at 5.575 billion pounds, a 50-million-pound increase from last month. The average steer value for 2026 is now projected at $240.25 per hundredweight, up $4.50 from a month ago. 

Pork production for 2026 is estimated at 28.28 billion pounds, up 60 million pounds from January. Pork exports were bumped up 50 million pounds this month to total 7.135 billion pounds. The average hog value is projected at $69.00, a month-to-month increase of $2.25.

The Census export data for the month of November was released with friendly numbers. U.S. corn exports for the month totaled 287.6 million bu, the 2nd largest November total on record. Soybean exports during the month were 157.73 mbu, the lowest volume since 2007. This was not surprising as China had just started booking U.S. soybeans at that time. November wheat exports totaled 59.4 mbu, a five-year high for the month.

November U.S. beef exports were the lowest volume since 2009 at 190.4 million pounds. This is not that surprising given the tight U.S. beef supply and price rationing that is taking place. Beef imports for the month were also down at 151,316 metric tons, a 1 percent decline from a year ago. 

The U.S. soybean crush volume for December came in right at the average trade guess with 230 million bu. This was a 9 mbu increase from November and 12 mbu more than in December 2024. Soy oil production in the month totaled 1.91 billion pounds, up 5 percent from November but 1 percent less than in December 2024. Soy oil stocks at the end of December were at an 18-month high at 2.18 billion pounds, but this was less than the 2.28 billion pounds trade was expecting. Soy meal stocks at the end of December were 350,839 tons, well below the 462,916 tons in November. Marketing year-to-date soybean crush now totals 892 mbu, a 7.5 percent increase from last year. This is also above the 5.1 percent increase the USDA is predicting.

December corn grind for ethanol was a monthly record at 488 mbu. This was a month-to-month increase of 5 percent and a year-to-year increase of 2 percent. Dried distiller grain production for the month totaled 1.95 million tons, up 11 percent from November and a 4 percent increase from last year. 

The pace of Brazil’s fieldwork is becoming more of a point of interest in the market. Ag Rural reports Brazil’s soybean harvest has reached the 10 percent level. Ag Rural also believes the 1st corn crop in Brazil is 10 percent harvested and planting of the 2nd crop is 13 percent complete.

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